No Loss for Words

If a President is judged by his success in dealing with crises then this situation in Egypt should provide a good measuring stick for Barack Obama. 

If President Obama and his diplomatic team working in concert with the diplomatic efforts of every other major Western power can help broker a peaceful transition from Mubarak to a caretaker government that will allow the democratic process to mature in Egypt then the President will be able to get some of the credit and it will be a big win for an administration frequently thought of as being inept at foreign affairs.

The implications of change in Egypt are monumental.  The politics of the region related to security in Israel are crucial, added to the strategic value of the Suez Canal in facilitating transport of petroleum products to Europe along with transporting every other kind of products back and forth from the Mediterranean community to the Arabian Peninsula really makes the adjustment in the human condition almost an afterthought. 

Geo-Politically, security in the Mediterranean and the Middle East all hinge on the cooperation between Egypt and various Western interests.  Our country supports dictators when their cooperation is needed to achieve our political goals. We have chosen over the years to overlook the internal workings of despot governments that cooperate with us while we have been critical of the ones that don’t play ball by our rules.

Nobody will argue that the people of Egypt don’t have every right to overthrow a dictator that has abused his country for so many years.  We applaud their guts for taking the risk in standing up to a well armed strong man. 

But wait a minute, if they toss out this bad guy that they hate but we sorta like because he sees things our way and someone seizes power that they like but we don’t like so much, where does that leave our Geo-Political security?

If preserving Israel is your number one priority, how would that affect your desires in Egypt?  If you were concerned about oil availability and price to the world markets how important would the “right” leadership be in Egypt?

And in my very simple overview, how does the possible change from a secular government to an Islamic non-secular government affect the game?  And within their own ranks the battle between the two major sects of the Muslim religion poses another set of problems.

I have to admit that the political differences between the Sunni and Shiite Muslims still perplex me.  I know they dislike each other like the Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, but I have never studied their history well enough to really know why. 

What I know is if the oil in the Middle East dried up nobody would care what happened there just like we didn’t care before we found out they had oil and we wanted it.

Who rules Egypt matters because a significant chunk of the world economy depends on a reliable stream of oil moving from the Middle East to all other parts of the world.

Even if the US developed alternative sources of fuel for our cars, we would still care because of the inability of our other trading partners to satisfy their own energy needs.  We can’t stick our head in the sand on this issue.

Our President will need to reveal what his priorities are as the politics in the region evolve.  He will be judged by how well he spins them compared to their outcome.

The reason a guy runs for President of the United States is because he thinks he is the smartest guy in the room and has all the best ideas.  Let’s see how smart this one is and if he has any ideas at a very crucial time in our history!

The news out of Cairo does not bode well for “President” Mubarak’s government in Egypt.  Following the ouster of the long standing government in Tunisia, the trend in North Africa is a little disturbing.

I know that peace in the international community requires that our government forge alliances with standing foreign governments that don’t resemble our own whether that be in structure or values.

If you believe that everyone in the world should believe what we believe then our government’s mission is to convert them to our way of thinking; regardless of the ramifications.

I suspect that foreign countries who have a strong belief in their structure of government would advocate for their own model.

That does create a source of conflict for us and them. 

If we can agree that China, Russia, North Korea or Iran is entitled to adopt positions on human rights that are different from our own without us criticizing them, then we can co-exist by agreeing to disagree.  If we cannot agree on this, then we are doomed to fight for the overthrow of their governments so we can install one more sympathetic to our own personal world view.

In spite of our differences, we have been good friends with President Mubarak for decades.  That relationship has been the foundation for peace in North Africa.

So now, our foreign policy is in a quandary.  Do we support a President and a government that has been such a great friend to peace in the region but in conflict with our social view of the world or do we throw him over to the uncertainty of an unknown government?

On the one hand, if the new government supported our human rights agenda, then we could get on board and root for the overthrow.  On the other hand, if this were to signal the shift of power to a non-secular Muslim controlled government that did little to address human rights issues but put the power in the hands of the people would that be better or worse than what we have today?

The problem we face in imposing our social agenda on the world is convincing them that what we have works better than what they already have.

It is clear that we are divided in our own country about whether one agenda is preferable to another so how is it that we can impose our conflict on everyone else?

We support kings and dictators all around the globe because it serves the security needs of our country.  Do we send the message to them that even though we have treaties with them we are working behind the scenes to overthrow their governments?

When did it become our job to make these decisions for the rest of the world?  The mine field we have entered in the past couple weeks with Tunisia and Egypt will have repercussions around the globe because our treaties don’t promise to defend against internal threats.

Our current administration champions the undermining of long standing governments if it furthers their social agenda even if it achieves their goals at the cost of security in the world.  This turn of events in North Africa is not a good omen for peace between nations.