March 9, 2019

Climate Change Guilt Trip

by Steve Dana

It’s hard to comment about things related to climate change these days because some people de-compensate at the mention.  Having said that, I am willing to spin a few minds into a tizzy.

Let me say from the beginning that I am not a climatologist or a meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express the other night.

Here’s what I think I know.  The weather is changing all the time.  Climate is a reflection of weather changes over time.  Climate is changing all the time.

We are growing grapes in the state of Washington where we couldn’t fifty years ago.  Climate changes in California are affecting the crops they can grow today that were staples fifty years ago.  Over that time, farmers have adapted their practices to take into consideration the changes.

For me and most other people, I don’t understand what all the fuss is about.  Al Gore is like Chicken Little warning us that the sky will fall.  Our own Jay Inslee characterized his Presidential campaign as a “War against Climate Change”.  As far as I can tell, the people he intends to wage war against are you and me.

From a scientific perspective the climatologists study the evolving climate, but they don’t ever suggest we can manage it.  The current craze is to reduce Green House gases and the movement is to identify those man-made sources of Green House gases and slash them.

The thing I don’t hear from reputable scientists is that efforts in the US will have a measurable impact on the problem.

The countries producing the most pollution contributing to the problem have no intention to slash production of Green House gases if the cost of doing so trashes their economy.  China and India are by far the largest populations on the planet and they produce the most pollution.  Unless we can twist their arm to get them to play ball, we accomplish nothing by trashing our own economy.

I’m not suggesting that we don’t undertake an effort to reduce environmental impacts that contribute to climate change, but we must keep in mind that everything comes with a cost.  For the Al Gores and the Jay Inslees of the world, they don’t mind that you bear the burden of a Climate Change War even knowing up front there will be no victory.

The thing that pushes their zealotry is guilt for America’s past abuses.  American excesses over the past sixty years coming from a very successful economy create an appearance to the rest of the world that Americans are selfish squanderers of the world’s resources.  Creating a Climate Change movement focusing on American behavior only, contributes nothing to measurable change in the climate but a catastrophic impact to the American economy.

When Obama talked about fundamental change to America, this is the tool that will make it happen.  Inslee’s war will be a war of ideas to convince us that we are bad people who should be ashamed of our success and as a result we should beat our selves to death for penance.

If the environment on the planet changes, our best strategy is to be adaptive.  If we have huge population centers located on low elevation seacoast areas subject to flooding if the oceans rise, then maybe we should be talking about moving to higher ground. Just look at New Orleans if you think you can hold back the sea.  That city is sinking and the government is spending a fortune to prevent the relentless flood.  Move away from the low land, quit building homes in flood prone areas, quit putting people’s lives in danger by allowing residences in “future flood” designated areas.

We’ve learned that mankind is fairly insignificant to mother nature.  It is only in our feeble minds that we think we can alter the weather.

I know I always advise my clients to buy property at least fifty feet above sea level.  Who knows, at some time that property might be on the beach.

Adopting modest changes to our behavior at modest prices is probably a good thing, but taxes to change your behavior has nothing to do with the environment and everything to do with power over you.  Think about that.

February 24, 2019

North Korea vs Donald Trump Round Two!

by Steve Dana

As the President and his team head over to Viet Nam for the second Summit with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, it’s important to reflect on where we’ve come from in what time period so moving forward we can see if Trump is the deal maker he suggests he is.

When Trump was elected, we had no dialog with Kim Jong Un.  He was testing rockets and bombs. Americans were wringing their hands.  The world was very uptight.  Things were Not Good.

Trump came along and as is his way, he vowed to take on the challenge of taming the hermit kingdom.  I don’t know whether anyone took Trump seriously since no president before him had ever made ANY PROGRESS with the Kims.  Actually, nobody took Trump serious.  Since the history of the Kim family dynasty was to take and never give, it would take a masterful deal maker to change history.

So, we are just two years into Trump’s presidency and we are heading out for the second summit with the DPRK.  That’s a good thing in my mind.

It’s hard to say if we’ve made substantive progress in de-nuclearizing the Korean peninsula but we appear to be talking and not backing off on the sanctions.  We have additional sanctions to apply if punitive action is warranted.

I am amused by the critics of the president who have a lot to say about how Trump should manage the negotiations and how he should apply more pressure or back off the pressure and how he should extract hard promises from Kim or how quickly the deed should be done before we declare the effort a failure.

What I would recommend to the smart asses in the congress and the press is to shut the hell up and let Trump negotiate with Kim.  We were going nowhere before Trump arrived and we appear to be moving slowly forward so let the process proceed.  If at the end of Trump’s first term we are still talking but don’t have a deal, we are making progress.

Pundits inside the government and out, have lots of opinions about how Trump should conduct the talks and for them the narrow definition of what success looks like.  I’m willing to let Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo take as much time as they need to soften up the North Koreans and make their case for change in the DPRK.  The process is not a sprint.  If it takes five more years but ends with Kim giving up his nukes, I would call that success.

For many of those pundits who have offered opinions for years, Trump again is a threat because if he succeeds at any level, it will demonstrate that the pundits didn’t know their butts from a hole in the ground.  That is the crux of the problem with Trump in this case and so many others.

We’ve been led to believe that problem after problem are un-repairable and Trump has systematically taken them on while applying different approaches to fixes and proved the champions of the status quo to be absolutely full of BS.

Humiliating the pundits is very dangerous for Trump because all the pundits offer is some level of expertise on a subject and when Trump demonstrates their ignorance, it creates even more hate.  Threats against their livelihoods can cause desperate measures.

North Korea will not just roll over because Trump offers to talk.  North Korea will need to see a clear benefit from the negotiations before they give up anything.  Trump is using a long standing strategy in working with Asian cultures that place a high value on relationships.  Trump is working on the relationships and that is a very good thing.

Hopefully, Kim will realize for himself the benefits of change for his country.  Let’s hope for the sake of the North Korean people that he sees the light sooner rather than later.

February 18, 2019

Arguments FOR Diversity and The Electoral College

by Steve Dana

As a lifelong resident of Washington state, I can tell you that this is God’s country.  Where else in the country can you find the diversity of almost everything you find in the northwest corner of the lower 48.  The climate in our state varies from rain forest on the peninsula to desert on the east side.  The Pacific Ocean on the coast and the Cascade Mountains a hundred miles inland.  High tech and manufacturing on the west side and farming and ranching on the east side.  Big cities with high population and traffic congestion on the west side and wide-open range with small town USA stretching from north to south to the east.  The contrasts that exist in our state can be breathtaking.  Breathtaking in one way in particular; the concentration of power not just on the west side, in the greater Seattle/King County area.

As the high tech and manufacturing companies have boomed in King County, the population has exploded accordingly.  From an economic standpoint the region is thriving but along with the boon come the trickle-down impacts that aren’t always kind to all socio-economic segments of the population.  Property values and rents have sky-rocketed as the demand outpaced the addition of new housing options.  For the new tech workers, it established a new norm.  For the lower income base, it created a crisis in housing.  Poorer people were either forced to move further out to the suburbs or they became homeless, living in tents and cardboard boxes throughout the urban landscape.

If you look at the state from the legislative standpoint the level of diversity is evident.  Corresponding to the growth of high tech in the Puget Sound region, the way voters have selected their representatives has changed dramatically.  Almost all of the central Puget Sound area now sends Democrats to the legislature where there previously was a balance.  The net result is that the makeup of the legislature is dominated by Democrats and by extension, they control the agenda and the focus of state resources.

Parts of the state feel helpless as King County Democrats determine their fate.  They have representatives in the legislature, but their influence is marginalized by their chronic minority status.  As much as they appeal for a voice and a fair share, they are reminded that there are consequences of elections.

From a political point of view, the state of Washington is less diverse than we have ever been for many decades.  For the residents of the suburban counties and rural counties there is little chance to have a meaningful voice because the population and concentration of Democrats in the urban counties is so dominant.  One county has so many Democrat votes it controls the whole state.  That’s the reality in Washington state today.

This scenario is played out is other states as well.  As the population centers have grown, their political power has increased proportionally to the point where the states of Oregon and California to our south are also dominated by Democrats in limited geographic concentrations.  The balance of power has sharply shifted to the left because of the concentration of Democrat voters in the urban areas.

The conclusion I came to is that concentrating all the power in one location isn’t healthy for our whole state as it isn’t for our neighbors either.

Now, when you think about why our founding fathers adopted the Electoral College to elect our president you will see that in order to equalize the states with much higher populations with the smaller states with fewer residents the big states were only granted so many electors based upon their representation in Congress.  The founders knew that New York could determine the fate of the country because of their population disparity with their smaller neighbors if only the popular vote was used.  The founders knew that in order that every state could participate in the presidential election process, they needed to shift influence to smaller states by guaranteeing that their votes counted.

The founders recognized that the nation needed the benefits of both the rural and urban economies but if the power was only allocated by population, the control would accrue in the urban.

If the presidential election process abandons the Electoral College, the voters in five or six cities will have enough votes to call all of the shots and our votes will matter as much as those in Okanogan County in our state legislature.

February 11, 2019

Youthful Indiscretions or Character Flaws?

by Steve Dana

Regarding the controversy in Virginia, I think there are distinct issues to be considered.  First, there is are acts of bad judgement and second there are crimes.  If there is an allegation of criminal behavior, the authorities need to act accordingly.  Whether prosecution is pursued is a local decision.  If the issue is an act of bad judgement at some point in your life, should the result be destroying your career?  How we deal with each of them is important in light of the extreme reactions from the “Jumping to Conclusion Police (JCP)” that are quick to target others accused of something, anything.

We learned during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings that baseless allegations shouldn’t be allowed to ruin a nominee’s career.  We learned that accusations must be accompanied with corroboration to prevent character assassination without recourse.

During that painful time, we heard accusations from multiple women who accused the judge of sexual assault during his years in high school.  In the intervening years no hint of impropriety as Kavanaugh rose through the ranks of federal judiciary with multiple occasions where federal investigators dove into his past to expose misdeeds that would disqualify a candidate for appointment to any federal judgeship.  Not a word from anyone suggesting that Kavanaugh was unfit for appointment.

In each of the cases in Virginia, the circumstances are somewhat different.

In Governor Northam’s case, youthful indiscretion is only part of the issue.  His response to the allegation was to deny that he was either the guy in black face or the guy in the KKK robes; either of which would be problematic.  That is the problem for me.  The fact that he is confused suggests that he was caught in a lie.  Where have we heard that lying derails a career more frequently than bad judgement?

For Attorney General Herring, whose immediate reaction was to call for Northam’s resignation ended up admitting that he also dressed in black face as a youth.  The JCP jumped on him too and initially demanded his resignation.  His own hypocrisy of being guilty of semi-racist behavior while condemning Northam for the same demonstrates an apparent lack of character.

The case of Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax is different.  Two women accused him of sexual assault at different times in his life; one in college at Duke University and one later in his life.  There is corroborating evidence supporting their allegations but neither woman is asking for criminal prosecution.  Whether he is prosecuted or not, his repeated assaults suggest he might be an abuser.

For the partisans in the crowd, it has been pointed out that all three elected officials in Virginia are of the Democrat persuasion creating pressure from the party to respond.  Since the ME TOO Movement came about as a result of liberals calling out some of their most noteworthy icons as sexual predators it got a lot of news coverage and reaction from political leaders.  It was fashionable to judge the witch on the pyre without evidence corroborating their claim, only an allegation.  Everyone who had a soap box was up there judging.

That time conditioned us to believe that an allegation was good enough to convict, so they were quick to demand Kavanaugh be disqualified from serving on the Supreme Court.  What Kavanaugh did that differed from the celebrities was to demand his accusers provide evidence corroborating their claims.   Judge Kavanaugh was asking for one of the foundations of our justice system; due process.

Ultimately, everyone is entitled due process and shouldn’t be burned at the stake based upon flakey allegations.  Without offering an opinion about Northam, Fairfax or Herring, I would just say each is entitled to full investigation before they make a decision about resigning.  Absent criminal prosecution, it will be their decision to resign or stay.

When Donald Trump was a candidate, he was accused of being immoral at the least and the opposition wanted his behavior to disqualify him from serving.  Trump’s defenders said, “Let the voters decide.”  And that is what I would say about Northam, Fairfax and Herring, their behavior might be characterized as racist in the cases of Northam and Herring, but while racism is distasteful, it’s not a crime.  In the case of Fairfax, if his accusers aren’t willing to press charges and the prosecutors aren’t inclined to prosecute, then that case goes nowhere.  If character matters for elected officials, then this might be an opportunity for them to demonstrate if they have any.

Each of these elected officials has exposed their questionable character and are guilty of bad judgement or “youthful indiscretions” but like Trump, they will be judged by the voters when they next stand for re-election.

Remember Marion Berry was convicted of multiple felonies and still re-elected Mayor of Washington DC so voters may not be as concerned about any of these characters as you might.